Besides being wary of polls, which are usually just pollaganda, it’s worthwhile remembering that “news” stories are also generated by random error. Engram points out that recent fluctuations in casualties in Iraq are not the sign of either a “downward spiral” nor a big improvement that can be attributed to troop levels in Bagdahd.
In the meantime, we can expect that random fluctuations will drive the news. In July, that worked against the American effort to democratize Iraq (because the news was so demoralizing). In August, if current trends hold, it will work in favor. But it all averages out in the end. To know what is really happening, you have to ignore the monthly random error and focus on the longer term.
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